Tuesday, April 14, 2009

How does the future look for Roger?

Roger, has entered a new chapter in his life. Now that he's married his long time girlfriend Mirka and is expecting a baby with her this summer, where will his tennis career rank? How will these changes affect him as a player? Can he ever get back his #1 ranking now that he has other responsibilities and his primary competition is 5-6 years younger than him? Finally, how will his career end?

My guess is that Federer won't be able to regain the top spot again. Roger did more with with his four years at the top, than virtually any other player in the history of tennis. He's reached countless finals and has won all of the grand slams (excluding the French Open) at least 3 times. There really isn't that much more for him to achieve. He can break Sampras's record of 14 majors and he can still try to win the French Open to complete the career grand slam. At this point a calendar year grand slam would be too much to ask.

Nadal, is still the one major obstacle in Federer's path. He's stopped Federer from becoming the GOAT by defeating him four times at the French Open. Even if Roger were to somehow beat Nadal in the finals, It doesn't seem like it would mean that much because Nadal has owned him so many times.

I was surprised that Federer decided to play Monte Carlo this week, since he has just gotten married. I don't think his chances of winning are very good unless Nadal goes out early with an injury, but even reaching the finals might be challenging for him. Federer, has reach only a 9 finals since his streaky results started in early 2008. Federer's Monte Carlo draw is favorable for him to make the finals but he's probably going to have to contend with Novak Djokovic in the semis. If Roger brings his best game to Monte Carlo, plays great tennis all the way through the tournament getting by in as few sets as possible and Nadal is a little off his game, then I think Roger might have a decent chance of winning his first ever Monte Carlo title.

A lot of things will have to go right for him and it's going to take some luck but he could do it. Even if he's not the #1 player in the world anymore, Federer is always a threat in any tourament, even on his worst surface. Nadal is the heavy favorite, but if he doesn't play well this week, look for Federer to possibly win his first Monte Carlo title.

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