Federer snaps losing streak against Nadal and ends his title drought

It doesn't seem possible for Nadal to lose a match in straight sets on clay but that didn't discourage Roger Federer, who beat his greatest rival in two sets 6-4, 6-4 at the Madrid finals. I'm glad that I was able to see this match, although I was disappointed that Nadal seemed to be tired and didn't have the energy he needed to win. On the other hand Roger looked great, his backhand was consistent enough that it didn't hinder him and his forehand had finally become his weapon again. Most importantly Federer, switched up his tactics when he was playing Nadal and brought back his aggressive game and even served and volleyed on some points. He didn't get into defensive rallies with Nadal and kept down his number of unforced errors.

Now, you may remember that I gave my early predictions for the French Open a few weeks ago. Has it changed, because of this victory? Not really. I still think Nadal is going to win the French, in his typical dominating fashion. I don't expect him to lose more than two sets this time. Nadal is undefeated at the French Open (28-0) and I doubt that will change this year. However, if I am wrong and Nadal is upset, then it will be either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer, who beats him. No one else is up for that task.

The most important thing that I saw from this match is that Roger still has the belief in himself.
If he can still play like this he will be a threat to Nadal and any other player, tired or not. This match proves that Roger's recent decline has been mostly because of his mental lapses. If his focus and belief stays with his game. Then I could easily see another epic showdown between Federer and Nadal at Wimbledon this year.:)

Murray is the new #3. Fed doesn't seem to be impressed.

I recently read this article. It's Fed's perspective on Murray's recent assent to #3 in the ATP rankings. Here's a link to the article:

http://www.tennistalk.com/en/news/20090507/Federer_unimpressed_with_Murray%27s_rise_to_No._3

Federer, brought up the fact that Murray has yet to win a slam but did include Murray as one of the best players during the hard court season. I don't know about some of Fed's comments, Murray has pretty much owned him recently, in fact Fed's only win since 2005 against Murray, came at the US Open finals. Murray has proven himself to be a very consistent player on hard courts, in fact I would even say that he's had better results than Federer, in the past 7 months. No doubt, Fed, is also aware that Murray is closing the gap between them. In 6 months he's only reached 1 final, while Djokovic and Murray have routinely beaten him in the semis. Unless, he's able to figure out a way past them, it will only be a matter of time until both Murray and Djokovic pass him in the ATP ranking.

Early predictions for Roland Garros

Rafael Nadal, has continued his amazing clay court domination this season by claiming the first two clay titles. He went undefeated in 2006 and to be honest I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again this year. No one has been able to overcome him on this surface and most players can't even come close. Djokovic, has been the only player in 2009 to take a set off of him during their finals match in Monte Carlo. Surprisingly Federer, hasn't been there to challenge Nadal. He's been way off his game for most of the year although he's recently started to play a little bit better at Rome. If he's able to make the finals and get himself back on the right track, I could see him reaching the finals of Roland Garros for a fourth straight time, although it's extremely unlikely that he would be able to beat Nadal even if he got there. Djokovic and Stanislas Wawrinka are also good bets for the finals. Andy Murray just isn't good enough on clay to pose any kind of a threat to Nadal.

My guess is that it will be Novak Djokovic against Rafael Nadal at the Roland Garros finals (assuming they are on opposite ends of the draw.) Roger and Stan are the two other likely candidates but at this point they are distantly behind Djokovic. If Nole is able to put up a good fight I could possibly see him taking a set and maybe forcing a tie-break, if he doesn't do well then... I hope he at least finishes the match.

Prediction: Nadal wins Roland Garros over Djokovic 6-3, 6-2, 7-6, if Nole plays well. If not then 6-2, 6-0, 2-0 Djokovic retires.

Monte Carlo Semi-finals predictions

Well, I was a little bit off with Federer, I didn't expect him to go out in the third round to Stanislas Wawrinka, but it's hard to make predictions for Federer now a days because he's so erratic. Anyway, these are my predictions for the semi-finals:

Nadal vs Murray:

Nadal, kind of obvious, he's much better on clay than Murray. I don't think that this will be close at all. Nadal in straights.

Djokovic vs Wawrinka:

A few days ago Stan won his match against Roger Federer but I would be surprised if he was able to upset Djokovic. The Djoker has a big lead in their head to head and has beaten Wawrinka on clay. I think Djokovic moves through in two very tight sets.

How does the future look for Roger?

Roger, has entered a new chapter in his life. Now that he's married his long time girlfriend Mirka and is expecting a baby with her this summer, where will his tennis career rank? How will these changes affect him as a player? Can he ever get back his #1 ranking now that he has other responsibilities and his primary competition is 5-6 years younger than him? Finally, how will his career end?

My guess is that Federer won't be able to regain the top spot again. Roger did more with with his four years at the top, than virtually any other player in the history of tennis. He's reached countless finals and has won all of the grand slams (excluding the French Open) at least 3 times. There really isn't that much more for him to achieve. He can break Sampras's record of 14 majors and he can still try to win the French Open to complete the career grand slam. At this point a calendar year grand slam would be too much to ask.

Nadal, is still the one major obstacle in Federer's path. He's stopped Federer from becoming the GOAT by defeating him four times at the French Open. Even if Roger were to somehow beat Nadal in the finals, It doesn't seem like it would mean that much because Nadal has owned him so many times.

I was surprised that Federer decided to play Monte Carlo this week, since he has just gotten married. I don't think his chances of winning are very good unless Nadal goes out early with an injury, but even reaching the finals might be challenging for him. Federer, has reach only a 9 finals since his streaky results started in early 2008. Federer's Monte Carlo draw is favorable for him to make the finals but he's probably going to have to contend with Novak Djokovic in the semis. If Roger brings his best game to Monte Carlo, plays great tennis all the way through the tournament getting by in as few sets as possible and Nadal is a little off his game, then I think Roger might have a decent chance of winning his first ever Monte Carlo title.

A lot of things will have to go right for him and it's going to take some luck but he could do it. Even if he's not the #1 player in the world anymore, Federer is always a threat in any tourament, even on his worst surface. Nadal is the heavy favorite, but if he doesn't play well this week, look for Federer to possibly win his first Monte Carlo title.

Roddick/Federer head-to-head

In the history of Men's tennis I don't think there has ever been a more one sided head-to-head than the Roger Federer/Andy Roddick one. The closest that I know of was Rod Laver vs Roy Emerson: 14-1 and Bjorn Borg vs Vitas Gerulitas: 16-0. Roddick is now 2-17 vs Federer and there will most likely be even more victories for Fed in the future.

Whenever these two played, Federer always had an answer for Roddick's shots. Federer, was an expert at returning Roddicks huge serve and once the point began, Federer was able to move Roddick around the court and place the ball in tough places for him to get to.

Federer has recently lost some of his consistency and I think that's the main reason, Roddick, was able to beat him last year in Miami. With Federer's consistency dropping, Roddick may have some opportunities in the future to win their matches. However, I would still favor the former world #1 to win their most important meetings.

What's wrong with Djokovic?

If you were following tennis in the early part of last year, you couldn't help coming across Novak Djokovic's name every couple of weeks. Djokovic, was playing the best tennis of everyone on the tour and it seemed like it was only a matter of time until he replaced Federer as the #1 player in the world. Both Nadal and Federer were off their games, Federer in particular had some horrible performances in several of his matches early last year. At the Australian Open, Djokovic, snapped Federer's streak of 10 straight grand slam finals and beat Nadal, one month later at the Pacific Life Open. Novak, even won the Rome Masters series title, by defeating Stanislas Wawrinka in the finals. The following week Novak, earned himself a chance to become the #2 player in the world by reaching The Hamburg semi-finals. Ironically his opponent was the current #2 player in the world Nadal. After an exciting 3 hour match, Nadal walked away the winner and saved his ranking. Djokovic, continued to impress by reaching the semi-finals at the French Open (again losing to Nadal) and later made the finals at The Artois Championships where he lost to Nadal again.

It was around this point that Djokovic started to struggle, he lost early at Wimbledon and the Rogers Cup although he was able to avenge his series of losses to Nadal, during the US Open Series. Nole, seemed to regain some of his fire at the Olympics and won most of his matches easily but he was stopped again by Nadal in the semi-finals.

The next month he made the semi-finals at the US Open and consistently had good results at the tournaments but he wasn't able to win a title. Nole, went on a losing streak against Jo Wilfried Tsonga and lost to him 3 times before the end of the year. Despite the setbacks he was still able to win the Masters Cup for the first time.

Since the beginning of the year, Djokovic hasn't brought his best performance to most of his matches. He lost in the quarter-finals at the Australian Open and was beaten at the BNP Paribas Open. His head-to-head against the top players is bad. He's lost the majority of the matches against Federer, Nadal, Tsonga, and Roddick.

I would like to see Djokovic turn this slump around but I'm not sure if he's capable of it. At times he doesn't seem to really be motivated and I wouldn't be surprised to see Andy Murray take over the #3 ranking, sometime around Wimbledon. I could even see Murray replacing Federer in about a year. Federer's, seems to be declining and he said on his website that Mirka is pregnant with their child. I don't think this can do anything but make his lessen his chances of staying on top. The big question for me is, whether or not Federer break Sampras's record of 14 majors.