The US Open 2009 draw

When I first saw this draw I couldn't believe it was for real and I'm not just saying that as a Nadal fan. I mean look at this, it's got to be one of the most difficult draws ever.
http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ms/r1s2.html

Nadal's draw has Gasquet in the first round, Possibly Keifer in the second, Almagaro and Ginepri both lurking in the third round, a possible meeting with Ferrer in the fourth and Berdych or Tsonga in the quarters, with Murray in the semis and Federer in the finals.

Now of course, that's the worst case sinereo but still, that's incredibly hard. Federer, on the other hand has a very easy draw. No tough opponents until Hewitt in the third round and that's really just about it, except for a possible run in with Soderling or Blake in the fourth round and Davydenko in the quarters. Novak Djokovic has Ljubicic in the first round and is in the same quarter as Roddick, same half as Roger. Murray has Del Potro in his quarter and will face Gulbis in the first round.

Based on these draws, I think Roger has a great chance of making the finals, even if he doesn't play his best tennis he should still be able to get there. Rafa's been struggling to get back into his rhythm and based on the hard draw I wouldn't be surprised to see him upset earlier in the tournament. Murray, has Del Potro in his quarter and Djokovic has Roddick. These guys will have to go through each other to get to the semis. That's good for Roger, his biggest competition will be eliminating itself. In fact the more I think about it the more I like Roger's chance of claiming his sixth US Open title. We'll see what happens but for right now I'm going with Roger to win the Open.

Federer wins Cincinatti title over Djokovic

I think this was the closest I've seen to vintage Roger Federer in a long time. His forehand was solid his backhand was solid. His serve was there for him when he needed it and his game was just all-around great. Everything about Roger's game looked good. Djokovic on the other hand was completely off in the first set, Roger completely dominated him and came within two points of bageling Djokovic. In the second set Djokovic, seemingly managed to take quick control. He broke Roger's serve and went up 3-0 only to be broken back his very next service game. Both players held serve from that point on until 5-all when Roger broke Djokovic's serve yet again and served out the match the 6-1, 7-5 to claim his third masters series in Cincinnati.

So now with the US Open being only a week away, I would say that Roger Federer looks to be the strongest contender of the "Big four" or "Big six" if you include Roddick and Del Potro. He finally put an end to his losing streak against Andy Murray by dominating him in the semi-finals. Nole took out Nadal, and Roddick lost to Querrey in the second round. Based on the results of Cincinnati and Fed's recent performance in slams, he is probably the favorite for the Open. However, it's far from a foregone conclusion that Federer will win his 16th major at this US Open. Any one of the guys in the "Big six" could upset him. Even Roddick could do it.

It should be a really good US Open. I'm really looking forward to it.

Rafa's knees...are bad!!!!

After watching Nadal's matches against David Ferrer, and Juan Martin Del Potro, I can say with 100% certainty that Rafa knees are in big trouble. I really didn't like what I saw in either match, especially against Ferrer.

Nadal, has made some major changes to his game, since he took time to recover, after the French Open. He's now trying to play a more aggressive game from the baseline, keeping his opponent on the run as much as possible while moving as little as he can and keeping the points shorter. Unfortunately, speed has always been something that he's relied on, it's a critical part of his game and it's the one thing he was definitely lacking in Montreal. Just from watching him, you can see he isn't trying to run down the balls anymore. But that's a problem for his game because his serve isn't good enough to constantly keep him on the attack. Even aggressive players like Roger, have to do some ball retrieving. I realize he's trying to save his knees but he's not going to be able to play offensively all the time against guys like Andy Murray and Roger Federer. If they sense a weakness like that, they'll keep him on the run, at least part of the time and at some point he'll have to take more time off from the tennis season to rest his knees. It sucks that his knees are in such poor condition. If he developed a better serve earlier in his career which could have saved him from having to do all the running, he probably wouldn't be in this situation. I don't know why Rafa never placed more importance on developing his serve, surely he didn't think his knees would hold up under that kind of abuse forever. Why didn't his Uncle work with him on this important part of his game? The serve is important on every surface except clay. And why was he over-booking himself during the clay court season. Just to maintain his ranking? Why not cut out a tournament during the clay court season and replace it with one in the US Open series. That way he would have been more warmed up for the US Open and less tired for Roland Garros. Some of his scheduling doesn't make sense to me.

I hope Nadal, does find a way to improve his serve and ball placement, his movement wasn't good in Montreal but he hasn't played a match in over two months, so I'll cut him some slack on that. I wish him the best of luck and I would love to see him find a way to deal with his tendinitis and still win majors. Rafa's probably the mentally strongest person on tour, so if anyone can find a way to deal with this injury, it'll be him.

Montreal Finals: Andy Murray defeats Juan Martin Del Potro

This was a strange match. Del Potro, seemed to be tired from his 3 set semi-final match against Andy Roddick. He took so much time, between points that the umpire gave him several warnings, for time abuse. But he still played great in the first two sets and stayed completely even with Murray, narrowly winning the first set tie-break thanks to an unforced error from Murray, and then narrowly losing the second set. By the very end of the second set it became obvious that Del Potro was running out of steam. He took an extensively long injury time-out after the second set. Murray, complained to the umpire about the amount of time Del Potro was taking and the umpire said he would deal with it. Murray, seemed to be angry with Del Potro for taking so much time and the sports commentators said that Murray and Del Potro had somewhat of a bitter rivalry going back to their jr. days. Murray started to play more aggressively in the third set, and thorougly dominated Del Potro, eventually taking the the set and match 6-1.

Final thoughts: This was a good match. Both guys played in top form, for most of it and Del Potro in particular served great. One side note, the sports commentators were extremely annoying. They kept calling Del Potro "Del Po" or "The big man" I guess that's their way of trying to add color commentary but it just came off as stupid. I swear they get the worst people to commentate at the US Open series tournaments.XP

Monday in Montreal

Today, I've decided to try something different, I'm going to post a review on the matches that I saw and rate them based on how enjoyable I thought they were.

Mikhail Youzhny vs Marin Cilic

Unfortunately, I missed the first set of this match, so I can't say much about it, other than Marin won it fairly comfortably 6-3. The second set was much closer, Youzhny and Cilic exchanged breaks of serve late in the second set, then Youzhny broke serve again and went to serve out the set at 6-5 but despite having 5 set points, Youzhny wasn't able to do it and Cilic broke him to take the set to a tie-break. Once, in the tie-break Youzhny seized command and ran away with it 7-4. In the final set, Youzhny got an early break against Cilic, and never looked back, he closed out the final set easily 6-1.

Winner: Mikhail Youzhny 3-6, 7-6, 6-1.

Thoughts on the match: While, I enjoyed this one, I would have preferred some more consistent play from both of these guys. Cilic, pretty much self-destructed in the third set and it was kind of sad to see. He may be a good player with a lot of talent but he's going to need to work on his mental strength if he's going to be a serious force on tour. Rating: 3 out of 5 stars

Kunitsyn vs Niemeyer

This one was really good, even despite the large number of unforced errors. Both of these guys came up with jaw dropping winners and Niemeyer's huge serve was especially impressive, which he used to bail himself out of trouble against Kunitsyn. The first set of this match was very close, with Niemeyer just edging out Kunitsyn 7-5. Then, Niemeyer, on the verge of a massive upset, dominated Kunitsyn in the second set and took the second set and match 6-1. Niemeyer, now 33 years old, plans to retire after this year, his opponent in the next round is Roger Federer. Niemeyer, is ranked outside the top 400 so his match against Roger could be his last one.

Final thoughts on the match: Good quality stuff, no real complaints although I was hoping it would go to 3 sets. 4 out of 5 stars.

Bruno Agostinelli vs Peter Polanski

Polanski, dominated the beginning of the match, going up 3-0 but Bruno broke back at 1-3 and held serve to level the set at 3-all. Polanski, then re-gained control and took the first set 6-3.
A rain delay occurred early in the second set and forced a time delay. Once play resumed, the players took the second set to a tie-break which Polanski won 8 points to 6, to seal the victory.

Final thoughts on the match: I enjoyed this one as well. Especially the second set. Polanski, seems like a good player and his fore-hand is nice. He's scheduled to meet Djokovic in the next round, be sure to watch that one it should be an exciting match. Rating: 3 1/2 out of 5 stars

Stanislas Wawrinka vs Nicolas Kiefer

This one was a good match too. Wawrinka, had some great shot making and was always in control of this match. Once the first set was over, so was the match. Wawrinka, easily defeated Kiefer 6-4, 6-1.

Final thoughts on the match: Stan played a near flawless match. His shot making was just incredible at times and Kiefer was completely out-classed. 4 out of 5 stars.

There were a lot of good matches today. Oh and I forgot to mention, Nadal made a successful return to the tour, winning his doubles match against Djokovic and Vemic. Although, I wasn't able to see the match, I was glad to hear that he made it through without his knees bothering him. Hope they hold up well during the rest of the week.

Nadal to return in Montreal, Querrey wins first title of 2009,

Sam Querrey, has now gained the lead in the US Open series by defeating Carsten Ball in the finals of the LA Open. The match went all the way to 3 sets but Sam took the third set handily 6-1. This was a really important match for Sam. If he had lost here, it would have been the third time in a row that he lost in the finals to a lesser ranked opponent. Which brings up the question, does Sam Querrey have choking problems? Let's see how he does in Montreal, next week. The competition will be more difficult and if Sam, is able to consistently prove himself against tougher competition, it would indicate that he's making a break through in his career.

Speaking of Montreal, Nadal has announced to the press that he will make his return to the tour next week in the Roger's Cup. His uncle Toni, said that doesn't expect Nadal, to be at 100%, since he has not fully resumed his training. Nadal's performance in Montreal should answer a lot of questions about his tendinitis. Whether the rest has helped him or if the torn cartilage is too much for even Rafa to over-come. I hope to see him play great but I'm a little bit doubtful at this point.